Stocks finished higher on Friday after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set fresh all-time highs earlier in the session, supported by optimism over a potential China trade framework. Gains later faded as President Trump announced that US-Canada trade negotiations had been halted, triggering a partial pullback into the close. The Dow Jones also advanced, rounding off a week of shifting trade headlines and volatile moves. In Europe, markets rose on positive trade signals, while Asia-Pacific trading was more mixed as investors reacted to weaker Chinese industrial data.

Key Takeaways:

  • S&P 500 Sets New All-Time High: The S&P 500 rose 0.52% on Friday to close at a record 6,173.07, after touching an intraday peak of 6,187.68 that surpassed its previous high. Optimism over a potential China trade deal supported the rally. However, gains later moderated after President Trump shortly suspended US-Canada talks, reminding investors of persistent tariff risks.
  • Nasdaq Hits Record Close, Then Retreats: The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.52% to end at a record 20,273.46, having reached fresh highs earlier in the session. Momentum in artificial intelligence continued to lift the index, though sentiment faded after Trump’s remarks on trade talks. The Nasdaq still finished the week on a strong note, extending its recovery from sharp losses seen earlier in the year.
  • Dow Rallies on Trade Deal Hopes: The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 432.43 points, or 1%, to finish at 43,819.27, with cyclical and industrial stocks outperforming on the prospect of new trade agreements with major partners. Optimism from Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s comments about progress with ten trade partners boosted the move, even as concerns lingered around the Canadian talks.
  • European Markets Surge on Trade Optimism and Resilient Data: European stocks finished firmly higher on Friday, rounding off a positive week as confidence improved around the US-China trade framework and investors responded to regional economic data. The Stoxx Europe 600 jumped 1.14% to 543.63, marking its highest close in over three weeks, with optimism spreading across sectors from autos to industrials. France’s CAC 40 surged 1.78%, Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 0.99%, and Germany’s DAX advanced 1.5% to 24,000, its strongest since 9 June. The FTSE 100 in London gained 0.28% for the week. Regional data showed Spain’s annual inflation rising to 2.2% in June, while France’s rate edged up to 0.9% and Italy’s industrial turnover rebounded, giving investors reasons to stay constructive.
  • Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed on China Industrial Weakness: Asia-Pacific equities were uneven as Chinese industrial profits slumped 9.1% year-on-year for the first five months of 2025, the worst drop since last October, underscoring worries about persistent manufacturing stress. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.17% and the CSI 300 dropped 0.61%, though both posted weekly gains on easing Sino-US trade tensions and a framework deal for rare earth shipments. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.43% back above 40,000, driven by firm retail data and positive earnings from convenience and drugstore chains. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.77% as its Composite Business Sentiment Index softened, while Australia’s ASX 200 declined 0.43% on commodity price weakness.
  • US Consumer Spending Weakens as Inflation Surprises to the Upside: US consumer spending unexpectedly fell by 0.1% in May, following a 0.2% gain in April, marking its second decline so far in 2025 as the earlier boost from pre-tariff stockpiling wore off. Spending on durable goods dropped 1.8% while nondurable goods spending also slipped, reflecting weaker demand. Personal income declined 0.4% against forecasts for a 0.3% rise, adding further stress on household budgets. Meanwhile, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, rose 0.2% on the month and 2.7% year on year, surpassing the consensus estimate of 2.6%. Headline PCE inflation held steady at 2.3%, with monthly growth of 0.1% in line with expectations. 
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield Inches Higher on Inflation Surprise: Treasury yields edged up on Friday after the Fed’s preferred core PCE inflation measure rose 2.7% year on year, slightly hotter than expected. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.275%, up 2.2 basis points, while the 2-year yield climbed to 3.74% and the 30-year yield moved up to 4.836%. 
  • Oil Sees Sharpest Weekly Drop Since 2022: Oil prices closed modestly lower on Friday but recorded their steepest weekly declines in three years. Brent crude settled at $67.43 a barrel, down 12% on the week, while WTI fell to $65.10, down 11%, as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran removed the risk premium that had driven prices above $80 earlier in June. 

FX Today:

  • EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1700 as Bulls Target Higher Levels: The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1707, up 0.06% after hitting a daily high of 1.1753 and a low of 1.1686. Technicals continue to signal strength, supported by higher lows since March and sustained momentum above key moving averages, with the 100-day SMA at 1.1088 and the 200-day SMA at 1.0855 far below. Resistance is now seen near the 1.1800 psychological barrier while initial support stands around 1.1600, where the previous consolidation zone offers a retest level. A breakout above 1.1800 may open further gains toward 1.1900.
  • GBP/USD Holds Firm After Yearly Highs: GBP/USD ended at 1.3708, down 0.15% on the day after reaching a high of 1.3752 and a low of 1.3682. Sterling paused after a powerful rally that had lifted it to fresh yearly highs. The pair continues to trade well above its 50-day SMA at 1.3437, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3144 and 1.2942 reinforce the broader bullish picture. Near-term support is seen at 1.3600 while a confirmed break above 1.3750 could encourage a move toward 1.3900. If sellers take charge below 1.3600, a deeper retracement to the 1.3400 area could follow.
  • USD/JPY Struggles to Break Through 145.00: USD/JPY closed on Friday at 144.74, rising 0.28% after testing a high of 144.94 and a low of 144.17. The pair showed signs of rejection above the 145.00 psychological level as intraday buying lacked conviction, leaving a small-bodied bullish candle with a long upper shadow. Resistance is still reinforced by the 100-day SMA at 146.46 and the 200-day SMA at 149.52. Support is located near 144.30, where the 50-day SMA aligns, with the next lower target at 143.00 if selling intensifies. A decisive daily close above 145.00 could flip the tone to bullish and open up a test of 146.50.
  • USD/CAD Recovers Toward Resistance: USD/CAD ended at 1.3696, gaining 0.42% after reaching a high of 1.3758 and a low of 1.3626. The pair staged a modest rebound after weeks of weakness, driven by renewed uncertainty around US-Canada trade negotiations and a softer Canadian dollar. Technically, the pair remains capped below its 50-day SMA at 1.3788 and well under its 100-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.4012 and 1.4033, preserving a bearish structure in the medium term. Resistance near 1.3800 is seen as a potential ceiling if momentum fades, while support rests around 1.3600 and then 1.3500 if sellers regain control. Breaking through 1.3800 could encourage a move back to 1.4000.
  • Gold Retreats Sharply Below $3,300 as Sellers Dominate: Gold closed Friday at $3,277, down 1.50% after reaching a high of $3,328 and a low of $3,255. The metal broke decisively below its 50-day SMA near $3,323, marking a shift in near-term momentum as repeated failures to hold above $3,400 weighed on sentiment. Technicals remain supported longer term by the 100-day SMA at $3,153 and the 200-day SMA at $2,909, suggesting the bigger trend is intact for now. Immediate support lies near $3,250 while a deeper retracement could extend toward $3,150. If gold regains ground above $3,323, a new challenge of $3,400 could develop.

Market Movers:

  • Nike Surges After Strong Revenue Beat: Nike (NKE) closed up more than 15% after reporting Q4 revenue of $11.10 billion, above expectations of $10.72 billion. The company also announced measures to offset tariffs through price increases and shifting production. 
  • Apogee Enterprises Jumps on Upbeat Forecast: Apogee Enterprises (APOG) rose over 6% after raising its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to $3.80–$4.20 from $3.55–$4.10. The company cited healthy demand and operational efficiencies as key drivers. 
  • Boeing Climbs on Analyst Upgrade: Boeing (BA) gained more than 5% after Redburn upgraded its rating to buy from neutral, setting a $275 target. Analysts noted improving aircraft demand and cash flow.
  • Palantir Drops on Canadian Digital Tax Fears: Palantir Technologies (PLTR) sank over 9% after Canada announced a new digital business tax on US tech giants. Coinbase (COIN) also fell more than 5% on similar worries. Investors fear this tax could squeeze future profits.
  • CorMedix Sinks on Share Offering Plan: CorMedix (CRMD) plunged over 16% after unveiling a plan to raise $85 million through a stock sale. The potential dilution triggered a sharp sell-off. Traders worried about balance sheet pressures ahead.

A week marked by shifting trade narratives ended with new highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, although late-session tariff worries trimmed enthusiasm. Investors drew confidence from progress on a US-China framework while monitoring setbacks with Canada, leaving the overall trade outlook still fragile. Gains were also supported by falling oil prices and resilient corporate earnings, even as inflation readings surprised on the upside. Treasury yields responded to stickier price pressures, keeping debate alive over the Fed’s next move. As a new quarter begins, traders will focus on data releases and global trade signals to gauge whether markets can build on recent momentum.