US equities closed mixed on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both reaching fresh record highs after President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam that includes a 20% tariff on imports. The deal lifted sentiment for manufacturing-linked names, despite concerns over weaker labour data after the ADP report showed private payrolls fell last month. Traders grew more confident that the Federal Reserve might respond with an interest rate cut if upcoming jobs data confirm the slowdown. European markets ended the day higher, shrugging off UK political tensions, while Asian equities posted a mixed performance as investors weighed central bank signals and local inflation figures. 

Key Takeaways:

  • S&P 500 Sets Fresh Record on Vietnam Deal Optimism: The S&P 500 rose 0.47% to close at 6,227.42, posting a record close and touching an all-time intraday high. Nike, which manufactures heavily in Vietnam, gained 4% on hopes the agreement might provide longer-term clarity despite higher duties. 
  • Nasdaq Climbs to New High as Tech Extends Gains: The Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.94% to a record finish at 20,393.13. Strength in large technology stocks underpinned the move, helped by Apple’s 2% rise after an analyst upgrade. The Nasdaq has now climbed nearly 4% in the past week alone as confidence in the sector’s earnings resilience holds firm.
  • Dow Little Changed Amid Broader Rotation: The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped just 10.52 points, or 0.02%, to 44,484.42, underperforming its peers. A sharp decline in health insurance stocks weighed on the index, with UnitedHealth dropping more than 5% and CVS Health falling over 4% after Centene withdrew its 2025 guidance. 
  • Europe Holds Steady Despite UK Political Turmoil: European equity markets managed modest gains on Wednesday after a volatile session marked by political uncertainty in the UK. The Stoxx 600 finished up 0.18% at 541.22, recovering from midday losses. In London, the FTSE 100 fell 0.12% to 8,774.69 as bond yields jumped on signs of Labour Party divisions after a government U-turn on welfare reforms, with 10-year gilts closing at 4.611%. France’s CAC 40 outperformed, rising nearly 1%, while Germany’s DAX added 0.5% after upbeat hopes for broader trade agreements in Europe. Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 0.57%, and Spain’s IBEX extended a winning streak. Meanwhile, Eurostat reported eurozone unemployment at 6.3% for May, slightly higher than April’s 6.2%, while Spanish jobless figures fell to their lowest since before the 2008 crisis, adding a mixed economic backdrop for the region.
  • Asia Mixed as Singapore Sets Record, Japan Slips: Asian markets delivered a mixed performance on Wednesday as investors assessed fresh comments from Fed Chair Powell and local inflation data. Singapore’s Straits Times Index hit a record high at 4,008.85, climbing 0.45% on hopes of resilient regional growth. Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.56% to 39,762.48 while the Topix fell 0.21%, reflecting caution after recent strong rallies. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.47% as June inflation came in at 2.2%, above expectations. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.66% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.73%, supported by hopes for improved US–China trade sentiment. Thailand’s equity market fell 0.41% after the country’s prime minister was suspended, adding to local political uncertainty.
  • Oil Advances on Iran Nuclear Tensions Despite Inventory Build: Oil prices rose on Wednesday after Iran moved to restrict cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, escalating concerns. Brent crude climbed $1.79, or 2.67%, to $68.90 a barrel, while WTI added $1.80, or 2.75%, to $67.25. A surprise build in US crude inventories of 3.8 million barrels tempered gains, with petrol demand slipping to 8.6 million barrels per day during the busy summer driving season. 
  • Weak Private Jobs Data Weighs on Fed Outlook: ADP reported the private sector shed 33,000 jobs in June, well below forecasts for a 100,000 increase, marking the first monthly contraction since March 2023. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls, due Thursday, to show growth of 110,000, but markets fear a downside surprise. Analysts noted that a weak official report could tip the Fed toward cutting rates at its July meeting.
  • Treasury Yields Firm Despite Labour Market Concerns: The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed more than 3 basis points to 4.283% on Wednesday, while the 30-year yield advanced to 4.809%. The 2-year yield edged up to 3.787%, showing investor caution about inflation and trade tensions, even after weaker-than-expected ADP data. Bond traders are also eyeing Trump’s tax-and-spending bill, which passed the Senate and now heads to the House for final approval, adding to policy uncertainty.

FX Today:

  • EUR/USD Holds Steady Near Multi-Month Highs: The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1801, slipping just 0.04% after trading between 1.1746 and 1.1809, maintaining its recent bullish stance. A small-bodied daily candle with long wicks indicated hesitation around key resistance, yet the pair remains within a strong upward channel that has held since mid-May. The euro has advanced more than 4% in that period, with buyers continuing to respect higher lows and higher highs. The price is comfortably above the 50-day SMA at 1.1412, the 100-day SMA at 1.1322, and the 200-day SMA at 1.0866, underlining a powerful structural trend. Short-term focus is on a decisive break above the 1.1810 barrier, which could open a move towards 1.1900, while a pullback might test support near 1.1750. Consolidation above 1.1700 would still maintain a bullish view, with longer-term traders eyeing the 1.2000 area if momentum extends. 
  • GBP/USD Slides from Recent Highs After Sharp Rejection: The GBP/USD pair settled at 1.3634, down 0.81% after reaching a session high of 1.3752 before retreating sharply. A strong bearish daily candle signalled profit-taking after a rally of more than 8% since mid-April. Resistance around 1.3750, aligned with prior March swing highs, proved difficult to overcome as bulls paused. Despite the pullback, the pair holds above its 50-day SMA at 1.3460, the 100-day SMA at 1.3183, and the 200-day SMA near 1.2948, keeping a broader uptrend structure alive. If weakness persists, next support could emerge around 1.3550 and then 1.3400, while a rebound above 1.3700 might encourage renewed buying interest. 
  • EUR/GBP Breaks Out Above 0.8600 on Strong Buying: The EUR/GBP pair ended Wednesday at 0.8655, climbing 0.83% in a clear breakout above resistance at 0.8600 that had capped gains in recent weeks. Price action was firm within a range of 0.8584 to 0.8669, printing a bullish candle that confirms a shift in market structure after weeks of sideways trading. The pair is now well above its 50-day SMA at 0.8475, with the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at 0.8440 and 0.8388 also acting as supportive layers. Traders see scope to test 0.8700 next, with higher targets around the April swing high near 0.8750 if momentum holds. Any pullbacks could find support near the broken 0.8600 level or deeper around the 50-day SMA, with the broader bias favouring euro strength as long as price stays above the moving average cluster.
  • USD/CAD Slips Toward 1.3550 as Downtrend Continues: The USD/CAD pair closed at 1.3588 on Wednesday , declining 0.41% after trading between 1.3664 and 1.3588, extending a consistent series of lower highs and lower lows since mid-April. Price remains firmly below its 50-day SMA at 1.3770, as well as the 100-day SMA at 1.3991 and the 200-day SMA near 1.4033, highlighting strong downside momentum. Immediate support sits around 1.3550, with a deeper bearish target near 1.3450 if selling pressure increases. The failure to reclaim the 1.3700 handle underscores a weak technical picture, and momentum indicators show no signs of exhaustion, leaving the trend bias negative. Any meaningful bullish reversal would likely require a decisive close above 1.3800 to disrupt the current bearish sequence, but until then traders may continue to favour selling rallies as the broader downtrend remains firmly in place.
  • Gold Holds Firm Above $3,300 as Bulls Eye Breakout: Gold finished Wednesday  at $3,359, climbing 0.61% after reaching an intraday peak of $3,359and a low of $3,327, maintaining a robust uptrend. A strong daily candle confirmed continued higher highs and higher lows since March, with price comfortably above the 50-day SMA at $3,321 and the 100-day and 200-day SMAs well below. Gold remains supported by geopolitical worries and expectations of easier Fed policy, with traders eyeing a push beyond $3,360 toward $3,400. Initial support should emerge near $3,321, with stronger bids closer to $3,250 if any pullback develops. 

Market Movers:

  • Tesla Rises on China Deliveries Growth: Tesla (TSLA) closed up more than 4% after reporting June deliveries from its Shanghai plant rose 0.8% year-on-year to 71,599 vehicles.
  • Verint Surges on Takeover Talks: Verint Systems (VRNT) jumped 14% after Bloomberg reported that private equity firm Thoma Bravo is in advanced discussions to acquire the company.
  • Nike Leads Dow Higher on Vietnam Deal: Nike (NKE) climbed more than 4% after President Trump confirmed a trade deal with Vietnam, which includes a 20% tariff on imports. 
  • BrightView Sinks on Revenue Downgrade: BrightView Holdings (BV) fell more than 10% after cutting its full-year revenue forecast to a range of $2.68 billion–$2.73 billion.
  • Oscar Health Drops on Bearish Initiation: Oscar Health (OSCR) plunged 19% after Barclays initiated coverage of the stock with an underweight rating and a $17 price target.

After a session shaped by mixed economic data and trade headlines, markets ended with a steady tone as investors balanced upbeat progress on the Vietnam deal with concerns over private-sector job losses. Record closes for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showed confidence in growth prospects, even as the Dow struggled under sector-specific pressures. Rising oil prices and political tensions in the UK added layers of complexity to the global backdrop. Looking ahead, all eyes will turn to Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could play a critical role in influencing the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later this month.