US Advance GDP will be an important gauge to assess how the global economy performed in the third quarter of the year. However, traders will also be watching for the October flash PMIs to see how Q4 is beginning to shape up too. Elsewhere there is a raft of tier-one data for major economies covering inflation and unemployment. Most importantly comes a crucial decision for the ECB over the size of its latest rate hike. This comes in addition to rate decisions from central banks in Canada, Japan, Brazil and Colombia. 

Watch for: 

  • North America – US Flash PMIs, Consumer Confidence and Advance Q3 GDP. The Bank of Canada will also be important.
  • Europe – The ECB dominates the week, but also watch for important German economic data too.
  • Asia – The Bank of Japan will be key, but also the Australian CPI
  • LatAm – Central bank decisions in Brazil and Colombia, in addition to a raft of inflation and unemployment across the region

North America

N.B. Forecasts are the latest available consensus 

US dollar (USD)

The USD has been in a period of choppy performance. There have been some sizable intraday swings of risk appetite driven by the UK political turmoil and the US earnings season. This has restricted USD gains in the past few weeks. However, with US Treasury yields moving higher again, we expect the USD outperformance to take hold once more against major forex.

US data is forecast to show marginal improvements in activity data this week. The flash PMIs are expected to show a composite figure back into expansion (above 50), whilst durable goods are forecast to tick higher. The big focus will be on Q3 growth which is forecast to show annualised growth of +2.0%. The well-regarded GDPNow model from the Atlanta Fed is running up at 2.9%, so if the consensus sees an upside surprise then this will only add fuel to the USD rally.

Canadian dollar (CAD)

There is some debate amongst analysts over whether we will see a 50bps or 75bps hike from the Bank of Canada this week. However, with headline inflation coming in higher than expected at 6.9% last week and a tick higher in core inflation to 5.4%, this will add fuel to the expectation of another aggressive BoC hike. A 75bps hike would boost CAD near term.

  • USD/CAD – The pair retains a strongly positive momentum configuration that suggests near-term corrections are a chance to buy. Picking up from support at 1.3650 last week a retest of the 1.3977 high cannot be ruled out.


Precious metals have been more volatile in recent sessions, with silver showing signs of a near-term bottom. However, the rise in real US bond yields and USD strength is a drag on commodities. As such we would continue to view any near-term strength in gold or silver as being short-lived. 

Oil has tended to be dragged lower by the consistent deterioration in the global economic outlook (thus hitting demand expectations). Supply tinkering by OPEC+ has periodically encouraged near-term rallies, but they tend to die out fairly quickly once the focus turns back to the demand concerns. 

  • Brent Crude Oil – A fluctuation around a near-term pivot around $93 has muddied the outlook in the past week. However, with rallies tending to fade once more there is a negative bias forming for a test of the support band around $88/$90 this week. A downside break opens the $83.55 low once more. Resistance around $95/$96 is growing.
  • Gold – A decisive break below $1615 would be two-and-a-half-year lows but also open downside once more. The next band of support comes in around $1445/$1555. Momentum remains very negatively configured and near-term rallies are a chance to sell.
  • Silver – With rallies in the past week consistent failing between $18.90/$19.06 the downside pressure is growing again. With the corrective configuration on momentum developing, we continue to favour selling into strength for pressure on $17.95/$18.08 support.

Wall Street

The positive start to the US earnings season has helped to encourage support for Wall Street. However, if Treasury yields continue to move higher, this is likely to drown out much of the positive momentum from corporate earnings. We continue to see near-term rallies as a chance to sell.

  • S&P 500 futures – The outlook is deteriorating once more. Posting lower high resistance at 3777 and with the daily RSI failing at 50, this all points to selling into near-term strength. With the downside potential in the momentum, a move back to test old support at 3571 could be seen.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures – Another lower high looks to have been posted at 11430 under the 11728 October high. The RSI continues to fail under 50 and suggests near-term strength remains a chance to sell. We favour a test of 10715 initially but 10485 cannot be ruled out.
  • Dow futures – The Dow is not falling as hard as the tech-heavy NASDAQ but the rally has now decisively fallen over. This has left resistance at 30860. With deteriorating momentum, this opens for a test of initial support at 29640 this week.


N.B. Forecasts are the latest available consensus 

Euro (EUR)

The ECB monetary policy meeting is a crucial event this week. There are no economic projections in this meeting, but inflation continues to rise and economic activity data continues to deteriorate (and point to mildly negative GDP in Q3). There have been very few dissenting voices from the Governing Council members in recent weeks. This would point towards a 75 basis points hike for the second meeting in a row is all but nailed on. Lagarde has said previously that she is looking for normal/neutral interest rates (a deposit rate somewhere close to +2%) before engaging in quantitative tightening. The deposit rate is still 125bps away, so this suggests +75bps this week and a likely +50bps in December.

From a EUR perspective, tightening hard into a recession is still a concern, especially prices against the Fed’s policy, so the EUR is likely to continue to underperform the USD.

  • EUR/USD – The near-term rally has faltered in the resistance of overhead supply between 0.9800/0.9900. With the RSI struggling under 50 again this at least points to drift lower. It means that a move under 0.9705 would open October low at 0.9630 which protects 0.9535.

British pound (GBP)

Writing about GBP has been a thankless task in recent weeks due to the massive UK political instability. With Prime Minister Truss resigning after just over six weeks (45 days to be exact) there will be another leadership contest. Who knows what might be thrown up in the next few days, but taking a step back, political risk premium never tends to be a good thing for a currency. 

There might be a sense of calm this week ahead of the new leader taking control. However, regardless of who it is, they are taking hold of a poisoned chalice. They will inherit an economy of inflation over 10%, a current account deficit of c.-5%, a budget deficit of c. -7% and interest rates rising sharply into a recessionary outlook. Looking past near-term volatility, GBP will remain under selling pressure in the medium term.

  • GBP/USD – The downside drift on Cable is taking hold once more, but near-term rallies remain a chance to sell. Having broken 1.1150 support a retreat under 1.1100 is likely, with a test of the 1.0925 support possible this week. 


With the negative bias taking hold on Wall Street once more, European indices drifting lower again. The corrective forces are growing.

  • DAX – The rally has pulled lower to leave a key high at 12935 and a renewing correction is threatening. Closing consistently under the near-term pivot band between 12600/12700 will see a corrective bias growing. A test of the initial higher lo at 12345 could be seen.
  • FTSE 100 – The near-term rally has turned lower to leave what could now be a key lower high at 7021 (under the October high of 7105). With deteriorating momentum, we see near-term rallies as a chance to sell. Under 6821 opens the old key support band 6755/6781.


N.B. Forecasts are the latest available consensus 

Japanese yen (JPY)

With USD/JPY pushing towards 150, we have to be constantly on alert for intervention now. There is ongoing weakness in JPY but there could be a sharp jag back of recovery if there is another bout of considerable intervention. Could the BoJ tinker with yield curve control this week? If so, it would likely give a short-covering rally to JPY. However, it would still likely be short-lived as the significant rate differentials play poorly for the JPY as the Bank of Japan is left in the wake of far more hawkish major central banks.

  • USD/JPY – The relentless uptrend continues with the move decisively above 150 to levels not seen since July 1990. The RSI is incredibly stretched now and technically very overbought (reflecting the massive risk of intervention too). Although the move continues higher into blue sky territory a sharp pullback is a growing risk. Support is around 145/146
  • AUD/JPY – A near-term risk rally has been choppy into resistance around 94/95. The technical outlook is fairly neutral with the RSI unwound to 50. Initial support is around 93.15. Holding above 94.80 improves.

Australian dollar (AUD)

The AUD has been underperforming since the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked less than expected in early October. With broader market risk appetite souring once more, there is little reason to believe that a risk-positive currency such as the Aussie will not continue to perform poorly. CPI inflation is expected to jump to 7% in Q3. Any above forecast print may allow AUD some respite, but it would likely only be short-lived.

  • AUD/USD – Even though the downtrend channel has been tested, the resistance around 0.6345/0.6390 is strengthening and rallies are still a chance to sell. We favour a retest of the low at 0.6170.

New Zealand dollar (NZD)

In the recent 50bps hike the RBNZ was more hawkish than the RBA and this has allowed a mild rebound of the NZD versus the AUD. However, the kiwi is a commodity currency that is struggling to hold any consistent recovery versus the USD. With no New Zealand data to change this narrative, we expect NZD to remain under selling pressure.

  • NZD/USD – The pair has held up well in recent weeks but is still at risk of the dominant 10-week downtrend weighing on the outlook. The continued negative configuration on momentum also maintains a strategy of selling into strength. Reaction to resistance at 0.5740 will be important this week.


N.B. Forecasts are the latest available consensus 

Brazilian real (BRL)

The Brazilian real continues to perform well amongst its Lat Am peers in performance against the USD. The central bank is now on pause and the forecast for continued inflation reduction shows the hawkish stance is now working. BRL will likely continue to feel the benefit of this.  

  • USD/BRL –the fluctuations within a range continue. However, there has been another bull failure around the 5.3100/5.3600 resistance band and signs that rallies within a ranging market are a chance to sell. A strengthening BRL could drive a test of 5.1100/5.1500 this week.

Mexican peso (MXN)

Signs that inflation could be starting to fall will be welcome for the central bank as the jobless rate is also starting to tick higher. The MXN has continued to be relatively stable versus the USD in recent months. Falling inflation could help a shade of outperformance this week though.

  • USD/MXN –pair retains a very neutral trading outlook as the fluctuations within the multi-month range continue. Initial support at 19.930 could be tested if MXN finds a bid this week. However, this would be very much mid-range trading. Moves towards the support band 19.750/19.850 are bought into, whilst resistance is a barrier at 20.200/20.300. 

This material is for general information purposes only and is not intended as (and should not be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. INFINOX is not authorised to provide investment advice. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by INFINOX or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.