As the assessment of the impact of a “Nu” COVID variant continues, traders will also be readying for a hectic week of data. It has been all rather quiet on the economic calendar in the past couple of weeks, but the interest ramps up as we round off November and move into the first week of December. Focus is squarely on PMIs with the ISM and a crucial Nonfarm Payrolls report in the US. Elsewhere, PMIs are also important, whilst Eurozone inflation remains a hot topic for the ECB. Jobs data is also on the agenda for Latin America.
- North America – US Consumer Confidence, ISM PMIs and Nonfarm Payrolls, in addition to Canadian GDP
- Europe & Asia – PMIs for China, Eurozone and UK, Eurozone inflation and Australian GDP
- LatAm – Unemployment for Mexico, Brazil and Colombia; Brazilian Manufacturing PMI and GDP
North American data:
- US Pending Home Sales (Monday 29th November, 1500GMT) are expected to grow by +1.0% month on month in October (after falling by -2.3% in September)
- Canadian GDP (Tuesday 30th November, 1330GMT) +2.5% annualised Q3 expected
- US Consumer Confidence (Tuesday 30th November, 1500GMT)
- ADP employment change (Wednesday 1st December, 1315GMT) is expected to fall to 480,000 (from 571,000 in October)
- ISM Manufacturing (Wednesday 1st December, 1500GMT) is expected to increase marginally to 61.0 (from 60.8 in October)
- Fed Beige Book (Wednesday 1st December, 1900GMT)
- US Jobless Claims (Thursday 2nd December, 1330GMT)
- US Nonfarm Payrolls (Friday 3rd December, 1330GMT) headline jobs of 563,000 exp (531,000 last month)
- ISM Services (Friday 3rd December, 1500GMT) are expected to fall back slightly to 65.2 (from 66.7 in October)
It is a packed calendar for the US this week. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence ticked higher last month, but with the Michigan Sentiment jagging back lower again, the risk will certainly be for a negative surprise in Confidence this month.
The ISM PMIs will also be a key driver throughout the week. Both are expected to remain in strong expansion territory above 60. ISM Manufacturing is expected to expand further to 61.0 (from 60.8) whilst ISM Services is forecast to fall slightly to what is still an extremely strong 65.2 (from 66.7). Both of these would reflect the continued strength of the US recovery.
Nonfarm Payrolls are the key data point of the week. Headline jobs growth is expected to once more be solidly strong with an increase of 563,000 jobs. This would be a decent improvement on last month’s 531,000. As ever we are looking for volatility from revisions to prior months too. Strong wage growth is an issue for the Fed too, with the fears that elevated inflation expectations feed into wages and create an inflationary spiral. Average hourly earnings are expected to remain elevated at +5.0% this month (+4.9% last month). Unemployment is expected to continue to drop, to 4.5% (from 4.6% last month).
- USD to be volatile on data throughout the week. ISM and Nonfarm Payrolls will be especially in focus. Positive surprises may not get the traction that negative surprises do, with the USD having become so overbought.
- CAD reaction to GDP surprises.
Europe & Asia:
- Japan Unemployment (Monday 29th November, 2350GMT)
- China PMIs - official (Tuesday 30th November, 0100GMT) Manufacturing PMI expected to tick slightly higher to 49.6 (from 49.2 in October)
- Eurozone inflation (Tuesday 30th November, 1000GMT) headline CPI is expected to fall to +3.7% in November (from +4.1% in October) and core CPI is expected to fall to +1.9% (from +2.1% in October)
- Australian GDP – Q3 (Wednesday 1st December, 0030GMT) is expected to fall by -2.3%
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI – final November (Wednesday 1st December, 0900GMT) is expected to be revised slightly lower to 58.5 (from the 58.6 flash which would be slightly up from 58.3 in October)
- UK Manufacturing PMI - final November (Wednesday 1st December, 0930GMT) expected to be unrevised from the flash at 58.2 (final October 57.8)
- Eurozone Services PMI - final November (Friday 3rd December, 0900GMT) expected to be revised marginally higher to 54.7 (54.6 flash, final October 54.6); this would leave the Composite PMI at 55.8.
- UK Services PMI - final November (Friday 3rd December, 0930GMT) is expected to be unrevised at 58.6 and the Composite PMI is expected to be 57.7.
- Eurozone Retail Sales (Friday 3rd December, 1000GMT)
As market sentiment has turned sour, China PMIs could impact the outlook further. The official Manufacturing PMI is expected to tick slightly higher to 49.6 but remains in contraction territory under 50. The trend in the composite data (which includes services PMIs data) is still towards stagnation in growth. Given the recent social restrictions and lockdown potential in Europe from rising COVID infections, the risk will be for the Eurozone PMIs to be revised lower at the final reading. This would only add to growing risk aversion.
Eurozone inflation is forecast to tip back lower in November. ECB members (such as Isabel Schnabel) still believe that this will be a feature of inflation in 2022. With the core inflation expected to fall back under 2% in November, this would be back below the ECB’s 2% target again.
- Negative surprises to PMIs would be negative for broad sentiment.
- Mexico Unemployment (Monday 29th November, 1200GMT)
- Brazil Unemployment (Tuesday 30th November, 1200GMT)
- Colombia Unemployment (Tuesday 30th November, 1500GMT)
- Brazil Manufacturing PMI (Wednesday 1st December, 1300GMT)
- Brazil GDP – Q3 (Thursday 2nd December, 1200GMT) expected to be +12.8%
Unemployment has been drifting lower across the major Latin American countries in recent months. A continuation of this trend would be encouraging for the continued recovery from COVID.
The Brazilian government has cut its growth forecasts for 2021 to 5.1% (from 5.2% to 5.4%). However, it continues to expect a “V” shaped economic recovery. Brazilian Manufacturing PMI holding above 50 will be important to this, after falling to 51.7 last month. The backwards-looking Q3 GDP is expected to come in at +12.8% annualised (after 12.4% in Q2). This would help to support arguments of that “V” shape.
- Broad Lat Am markets may be at the mercy of global sentiment this week.
- BRL to be reactive to the PMI and GDP