US Retail Sales came in with a decent bounce back in June after sliding in the previous month:

  • Headline Retail Sales improved by +0.6% for the month of June (-0.4% exp, -1.7% in May which was a downward revision from -1.3% originally announced)
  • Core Retail Sales (ex-autos) improved by +1.3% in June (+0.4% exp, -0.9% in May a downward revision from -0.7% originally announced)
  • Control Group sales (an even more targeted segment) improved by +1.1% on the month recovering from -1.4% last month 


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This marks a decent rebound in sales following the declines in May. Notably, however, there were downward revisions to the May data and with the two months taken together, the picture looks fairly mixed right now.

What seems to be clear is that economists continue to find it difficult to forecast the data as the US economic recovery from the COVID lockdown continues.  Into 2021 there have been wild swings in the monthly data which continues to mean it is difficult to read too much into one month. 

Market Reaction

Perhaps understandably, therefore, there has been a fairly mixed reaction to the retail sales data and markets will be quickly looking towards the Michigan Sentiment data later this afternoon.

  • Almost no net reaction on the US 10 year yield, EUR/USD or gold as markets have settled in the minutes following the data.