Major Headlines

  • Nvidia jumps 25% in after-market hours after stellar revenue guidance
  • DAX trades to three-week lows as German GDP data confirms a technical recession
  • Risk sentiment edgy this morning after Fitch placed US on ratings watch due to debt ceiling fiasco 

Dollar selling after the surge in May - is this the end of the seasonal bias and strongest performing month of the year (according to seasonal data)?

US10Y has been rampant running into 3.85%: will we see a retracement here as we approach next week's NFP? 

The risk sentiment continues to be vulnerable to debt ceiling talks breaking down and restarting, which will result in swings not just on equities, but also on the risk currencies. 

NZD has been brutally sold off in recent weeks, although, is it a case of over stretched now?

NZD has been brutally sold off in recent weeks

You can see from the weekly chart of NZDUSD that we have approached a key area for buyers to step in.

Any positive talk or shift to risk on, and the reward is for substantial upside here. The key will be sitting on the side-lines and wait for buyers to show a shift in sentiment, as opposed to trying to get in early. 

With core PCE being released later from the US, more upbeat data following yesterday better than forecast Unemployment and GDP data, we could see USD take another rally. A miss and the value show reward in selling USD at these extended prices. 

One market to watch would be JPY in case yields sell off. We could then expect some of the JPY crosses to retrace nicely from the current elevated levels. 

EURJPY is forming a weekly double top - but we'll be waiting for confirmation, as per usual. 

EURJPY is forming a weekly double top

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