What are we looking at today:
- USD continues to strengthen as yields move higher: The USD is outperforming once more (except for the EUR) this morning as US bond yields once more move higher.
- Indices are falling away again: We continue to eye the key medium-term support/pivot areas on major indices that could indicate an inflexion point for markets.
- Data trading: The is little data of note on the calendar today but traders will again be monitoring the speeches of three more Fed members. Today is Bostic, Bowman and Evans. Michelle Bowman sits very close on the spectrum to a centrist Fed chair Powell, so will be seen as a key gauge of the weight of potential policy direction.
The Ukraine war could be about to enter into a new phase of aggression. Russian forces are supposedly in the process of redeploying to the eastern regions of Ukraine. This could be the precursor to a renewed offensive over the coming weeks. According to reports, Russian President Putin is looking for some sort of victory to celebrate on 9th May which is national “Victory Day” in Russia.
Elsewhere in financial markets, we see US Treasury yields rising once more and the USD strengthening. This is weighing on sentiment in equity markets, whilst the oil price is falling away once more. Inflation is a theme in the coming days, whilst there are several major central banks to watch out for too.
However, it is a quiet start to the week on the calendar for the rest of today. However, the focus will be on Fed speakers and perhaps most specifically on Michelle Bowman. Bowman is a permanent voter on the FOMC and is historically seen as closely aligned to the thinking of Fed chair Powell. This may indicate where the Fed chair’s current views might be.
Market sentiment has a negative bias this morning: Indices are lower and the USD is strong again as Treasury yields move higher.
Treasury yields are higher again: After a phase of consolidation at the end of March, the US 10 year yield is now continuing solidly higher again. It is another +4bps this morning and is currently 2.74%.
Weekend Russia/Ukraine headlines: Russian forces are in the process of redeploying to Eastern Ukraine, with Vladamir Putin reportedly giving himself a target of a victory to celebrate on 9th May which is the Victory Day holiday in Russia.
French election moves into a run-off: The two leading candidates from the 2017 election are again in the run-off for the Presidency in 2022. The vote to elect either Macron or Le Pen will be on the 24th April. The outcome looks to be growing ever tighter.
China COVID lockdowns: With China still struggling to get a handle on COVID outbreaks, the negative impact on economic growth amid city lockdowns is growing.
China inflation higher than expected: The March headline CPI increased to +1.5% YoY versus the +1.2% forecast. Inflation was +0.9% in February. The PPI was also higher than expected at 8.3% (7.9% expected).
UK data misses: Monthly GDP for February was slightly lower than forecast at +0.1% (+0.3% forecast). Industrial Production was worse than expected at -0.6% MoM (+0.3% forecast).
Three Fed speakers today: Bostic (voter in 2024, hawk) speaks at 1430BST; Bowman (permanent voter, centrist) speaks at 1430BST; Evans (voter in 2023, dove) speaks at 1740BST.
Cryptocurrency is again lower: With risk appetite turning negative, we have seen crypto faltering in recent sessions. Bitcoin has been pressured lower and is another -1% this morning towards $42,300.
- No major data is due today
Major markets outlook
Broad outlook: Market sentiment is turning negative again, as indices falter. A stronger USD also tends to lend a more negative risk appetite.
Forex: The Japanese yen is the big underperformer as US yields breakout again. However, the commodity currencies (AUD, CAD especially) are under downward pressure. EUR is holding up well and is stronger today.
- EUR/USD has ticked solidly higher on Monday to leave a low at 1.0835. There is a key band of initial resistance between 1.0940/1.0960. However, with the continued negative configuration on daily momentum, we still favour selling intraday rallies for a test of 1.0805. Below that key support opens 1.06/1.07.
- GBP/USD initially sold off on the weaker UK economic data this morning, but seemingly continues to find willing buyers at or just below 1.3000. For now, there have only been intraday breaches of 1.3000, but a close below would open 1.2850 as the next support. Initial resistance is 1.3040/1.3050 but a move above 1.3110 is needed to suggest a recovery might be building.
- AUD/USD has continued to slide back following what was a failed breakout last week. The close below key near term support at 0.7455 has opened for a continued retracement back towards the 10-week uptrend (c. 0.7290). Initial support is now c. 0.7370. The 4-hour chart shows initial resistance now 0.7455/0.7495.
Commodities: Precious metals have been moving higher in recent sessions but resistance lies overhead. Oil is still finding sellers into intraday strength.
- Gold has held up well amidst the strengthening US dollar and has now broken a one-month downtrend. The tick higher is now eyeing a test of initial resistance at $1950 which protects the top of a four-week trading band of $1890/$1966. Initial support at $1938 and then $1927.
- Silver has also now broken its four-week downtrend but needs a move above $25.08 to suggest more considerable improvement in and change the corrective outlook. Support is in place at $24.36.
- Brent Crude oil has been struggling to engage a recovery since breaking the support at $105.30. Intraday rallies have consistently been used as a chance to sell recently and the initial resistance at $105.30/$107.00 also now coincides with the two-week downtrend. Further initial selling today favours pressure on the $100 psychological level which would open the reaction low at $97.80.It would need a move above $112.50 (the first key lower high) to suggest a sustainable recovery.
Indices: Markets look to be selling into near term strength for a test of key support areas.
- S&P 500 futures picked up from the support band at 4418/4444 but faltered at 4520 on Friday and trading lower again this morning opens for more pressure on the support band. This remains a key near to medium term inflexion point and a crucial test for the outlook.
- DAX has been hanging on to the key near to medium term support area 14,030/14,100 area, but the lack of recovery momentum is a worry. Near term resistance is still in place around 14,325 and with the 4-hour chart RSI still suggesting the near term strength is a chance to sell. This remains an important moment for the outlook. Support is at 14,030 and a close below would open a much deeper corrective move.
- FTSE 100 continued to push higher on Friday, and whilst the market is slightly lower in early moves today, there is still an appetite to buy into weakness. A full recovery to the February high of 7965 (before the war broke out) looks increasingly likely now. Initial support is at 7580 with reaction lows around 7530 growing in importance too.
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