- AUDJPY broke through a short-term ascending channel and dropped to three-month lows.
- Bulls showed some resilience below the 74.00 handle – support marked by 100-day EMA.
- Mixed technical indicators on hourly/daily charts warrant caution for aggressive traders.
- Any subsequent move beyond the 76.00 mark might still be seen as a selling opportunity.
In this week’s #ThrowbackThursday, we revisit our AUDJPY bearish call initiated on September 19. As was anticipated, the pair confirmed a near-term bearish breakdown through a three-month-old ascending trend-channel and dived to sub-74.00 levels for the first time since early July.
However, slightly oversold RSI (14) on the daily chart assisted the pair to defend 100-day EMA support and witness some near-term short-covering move. The pair jumped back above the key 75.00 psychological mark and recovered to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the 78.46-73.97 recent pullback.
Meanwhile, technical indicators on the daily chart have already recovered from the bearish territory, albeit are yet to confirm a near-term bullish bias. This makes it prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move.
That said, the pair still seems poised to move back above the 76.00 handle. Any subsequent move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity near the 76.60-65 region, which coincides with the trend-channel support breakpoint and should cap the upside for the pair.
On the flip side, the 75.00 confluence region (200-hour SMA and 23.6% Fibo. level) now seems to protect the immediate downside. A convincing breakthrough will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and turn the pair vulnerable to slide back towards challenging the 74.00 mark.